Early voting has been going on for weeks now, and we know have an idea how certain states are swinging, particularly swings states. And luckily (knock on wood), most are going in Hillary Clinton’s favor.
The best news comes from Nevada, where Democrats have the most cause for celebration. They lead Republicans in early votes cast as of Monday by 6.6 percentage points—43.2% of early votes have come from Democrats compared with 36.6% from registered Republicans and 20.2% that are listed as “other.”
Clinton also appears to have the edge in North Carolina according to the Upshot’s analysis of the state’s early vote data. North Carolina releases highly detailed information on every single early voter. Based on the voting history and demographics of those voters, the Upshot estimates Clinton has a 12-point lead among early voters and is six points ahead in the state overall—a lead higher than the one implied by recent polling.
And as of Monday in Colorado, Democrats are leading Republicans 331,153 to 300,275 in ballots cast, while unaffiliated voters have submitted 223,540 ballots. Democrats have led since early voting started in mid-October, which is good news for Clinton given that polls seem to have tightened in the state—so much so that the campaign just announced it was making its first ad buy in Colorado since July.
The only caveat is that a ballot cast by a registered Democrat or Republican is not necessarily a Democratic or Republican vote.