As Hillary Clinton said at the third debate, this is horrifying.
American University Professor Allen J. Lichtman, who has accurately predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1984, has predicted that Donald Trump will win the presidential election.
Lichtman first made his prediction to the Washington Post in September, before the Access Hollywood tape with Trump making lewd comments was released. However, despite all this, however, Lichtman has not wavered from his prediction.
“By the narrowest of possible margins, the keys still point to a Trump victory,” he told the Post this week.
Lichtman bases his predictions on a unique system that relies on 13 True/False questions, or “keys,” to evaluate the strength of the incumbent party.
Lichtman explains, “An answer of True on these True/False questions always favors the reelection of the party in power. And if six or more of the 13 keys are False, the party in power, the party holding the White House, is the predicted loser — any six or more.”
From Yahoo News:
Until last month, he said, the Democratic Party only had five keys against it. The final key that led Lichtman to make his prediction that Trump will win was “the third-party key, and that is based on an assessment that you would expect the third-party candidate, in this case the Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson, to get 5 percent or more of the vote.”
While “severe and unprecedented,” Lichtman said that the problems created for Trump by the “Access Hollywood” tape and subsequent sexual assault claims did not ultimately change any of the keys.
Still, he provided “two major qualifications” to his projection, noting that “I’m not a hedger, and I’ve never qualified before, in 30 years of predictions.”
Though his system, which was developed by studying every presidential election between 1960 and 1980, has proven to be a reliable indicator of election outcomes for the past 20 years, Lichtman admitted that “this election has the potential to shatter the normal boundaries of American politics and reset everything—including, perhaps, reset the keys to the White House.”