Democrats, liberals, and thinking people around America shuddered at the news that a professor who has accurately predicted every presidential election winner for the last thirty years is saying that Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is going to win the White House.
Allan Jay Lichtman is a professor at American University in Washington, D.C. and he hasn’t been wrong. While not endorsing Trump’s candidacy, he says Trump will win. The prediction by Lichtman is based on his own system he calls “The Keys to the White House”, which is a system based on the history of a candidate that uses thirteen different criteria.
Those criteria are: Contest, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, military failure, military success, incumbent charisma, and challenger charisma.
Lichtman says using these thirteen benchmarks he has deduced Trump will win, but that he is not endorsing Trump for president. In fact Lichtman says Trump’s candidacy is unique to American politics. He further elaborated, “Donald Trump has made this the most difficult election to assess since 1984. We have never before seen a candidate like Donald Trump, and Donald Trump may well break patterns of history that have held since 1860.”
Why does Lichtman believe Trump will cruise to victory over Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton? In an interview with the Washington Post Lichtman said:
Based on the 13 keys, it would predict a Donald Trump victory. Remember, six keys and you’re out, and right now the Democrats are out — for sure — five keys.
Key 1 is the party mandate — how well they did in the midterms. They got crushed.
Key number 3 is, the sitting president is not running.
Key number 7, no major policy change in Obama’s second term like the Affordable Care Act.
Key number 11, no major smashing foreign policy success.
And Key number 12, Hillary Clinton is not a Franklin Roosevelt.
If Lichtman is correct he will be one of the first to have offered a model to the public showing the fickleness of the American people. Now the onus falls to Democrats to use the information Litchman has compiled to attempt to use it against Trump to stop him before it is too late.