Nate Silver, the top dog at FiveThirtyEight.com is now predicting that if the election were held today Trump would win – 538 is the most respected data journalism outlet in the country, previously they had given Trump only a 20% chance of winning, today that number is nearly 60%.
Via Salon: After a parade of D-list celebrities and conservative icons yelled that the nation had been overrun by criminals in the cities and murderous undocumented immigrants in border towns, the Republican party’s presidential nominee’s current likelihood of winning stands at 57.5 percent, compared with Clinton’s 42.5 percent.
This is the first time that FiveThirtyEight has projected Trump to win. They correctly projected both the 2008 and 2012 Presidential Election.
Trump trailed by around 3 points in our forecasts a week ago. Typical convention bounce is 4 points. So you end up at Trump +1 or so.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 25, 2016
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 25, 2016